The bottom or is this time it’s different?

A number of market analysts observe that historically, an index can retrace a very significant amount (up to two-thirds; cf. Colby) while still in a primary trend. Some interpret the Dow Theory as supporting this:

…signals that occur on one index must match or correspond with the signals on the other. If one index, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, is confirming a new primary uptrend, but another index remains in a primary downward trend, traders should not assume that a new trend has begun (Investopedia).

BofA Global believes this to be the case for a very specific reason: household majority position of the overall market that has not sold, yet:

U.S. households now own roughly 52% of the stock market. And a look at three major market plunges since 2000 (see chart) shows that equities only bottomed a few quarters after significant selling activity from households occurred.

BofA’s research investment team said a common refrain from July investor meetings was: “Everybody’s already bearish, might as well buy.” But they still favor cash, credit, and equities, in that order. Or at least until households, the “decision-maker,” decides to make a move and sell.

Gated article but full post access here.

Pending Home Sales Fell 8.6% in June – Year-over-year, transactions DOWN 20.0%

Excerpt from the June pending home sales report from NAR:

Homes were 80% more expensive in June 2022 than in June 2019

    • Homes were 80% more expensive in June 2022 than in June 2019
    • Pending home sales declined 8.6% from May as escalating mortgage rates and housing prices impacted potential buyers.
    • Pending sales retreated in all four major regions, with the West experiencing the largest monthly decline.
    • Compared to the previous year, contract signings dropped by double digits in each region as pending sales in the West were down by nearly a third.

“The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, dipped 8.6% to 91.0 in June. Year-over-year, transactions shrank 20.0%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.”

See full report here.